Online event, 12.30pm Thursday 1 May
Reform Scotland, Scotland’s independent think tank, was delighted to host a conversation with Professor Graeme Roy, chair of the Scottish Fiscal Commission.
The Fiscal Commission’s most recent report examined the risks to devolved spending and funding over the coming decades. It projected that the number of Scots aged between 75 and 84 will grow by 26 per cent over 25 years, and those aged over 85 by 95 per cent. Meanwhile, the working age population will fall, meaning fewer economically productive people will have to pay more to support the rest. Scotland’s population as a share of the UK’s is also expected to fall.
The Fiscal Commission’s worst-case scenario – based on the gap between Scottish and overall UK life expectancy increasing, reductions in labour market participation, and an increased share of the population receiving disability payments – is an annual Holyrood budget gap of 11 per cent, equivalent to £14 billion.
The impact on health spending of all this will be profound – by 2029-30, health is expected to take up 34 per cent of the annual budget, growing to 47 per cent by 2074-75.
Professor Roy will discuss these challenges in conversation with Chris Deerin, Director of Reform Scotland. Watch back the discussion below: